<p>A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).</p>

Flávio Bolsonaro

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Renan Santos

Geraldo Alckmin

Tarcisio de Freitas

Jair Bolsonaro

Fernando Haddad

Michelle Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

Ratinho Júnior

Ronaldo Caiado

Romeu Zema

Camilo Santana

Eduardo Leite

Aldo Rebelo

Tereza Cristina

Helder Barbalho

Pablo Marçal

Augusto Cury

Brazil Presidential Election

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.

A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.

The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.

All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.

Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.

House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Which party will win the House in 2026?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.

A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated.

The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.

All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.

For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.

For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.

Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.

The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.

For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. 

For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.

Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

≤47

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

World Elections

Global Elections

Games

Main Election

Votes

House of representatives

Midterm

Formula 1

Congress

Brazil Sèrie B

Promotion

Racing

Motorsports

Earn 4%

Senate

United States

VfB Stuttgart

Draw (ŠK Slovan Bratislava vs. VfB Stuttgart)

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

ŠK Slovan Bratislava vs. VfB Stuttgart

Real Betis Balompié

FC Porto

Draw (Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Porto)

Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Porto

Aston Villa FC

Draw (Aston Villa FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK)

Fenerbahçe SK

Aston Villa FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

FK Bodø/Glimt

Draw (FK Bodø/Glimt vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund)

FK Bodø/Glimt vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

Manchester City FC

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Draw (Manchester City FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC)

Manchester City FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC

FK Shakhtar Donetsk

Draw (FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AEK)

FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AEK

Real Madrid CF

AS Roma

Draw (AS Roma vs. Real Madrid CF)

AS Roma vs. Real Madrid CF

FC Internazionale Milano

Draw (FC Internazionale Milano vs. Club Brugge KV)

Club Brugge KV

FC Internazionale Milano vs. Club Brugge KV

FC Barcelona

Draw (Galatasaray SK vs. FC Barcelona)

Galatasaray SK

Galatasaray SK vs. FC Barcelona

Liverpool FC

Draw (LASK Linz vs. Liverpool FC)

LASK Linz

LASK Linz vs. Liverpool FC

Como 1907

Feyenoord Rotterdam

Draw (Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Como 1907)

Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Como 1907

Arsenal FC

Draw (Arsenal FC vs. Lille OSC)

Lille OSC

Arsenal FC vs. Lille OSC

RB Leipzig

Draw (RB Leipzig vs. PSV)

RB Leipzig vs. PSV

Club Atlético de Madrid

Manchester United FC

Draw (Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC)

Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC

FC Bayern München

Draw (Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München)

Viking FK

Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München

Villarreal CF

SSC Napoli

Draw (Villarreal CF vs. SSC Napoli)

Villarreal CF vs. SSC Napoli