A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).


Lula da Silva <5%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

Lula da Silva 5-10%

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%

Lula da Silva 10-15%

Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+

Lula da Silva 15%+

Tarcisio de Freitas Victory

Ratinho Júnior Victory

Other

Renan Santos Victory

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Lula da Silva <5%136,3 mil US$vol.65%Yes64.5No35.5

Flávio Bolsonaro <5%91,7 mil US$vol.19%Yes19.1No81

Lula da Silva 5-10%118,4 mil US$vol.14%Yes13.5No86.5

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%76,9 mil US$vol.3%Yes3No97

Lula da Silva 10-15%68,9 mil US$vol.<1%Yes0.9No99.1

Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+42,3 mil US$vol.<1%Yes0.5No99.5

Lula da Silva 15%+34,2 mil US$vol.<1%Yes0.2No99.8

Tarcisio de Freitas Victory10,7 mil US$vol.<1%Yes0.05No100

Ratinho Júnior Victory10,1 mil US$vol.<1%Yes0.05No100

Other12 mil US$vol.<1%Yes0.05No100

Renan Santos Victory223,2 mil US$vol.<1%Yes0.05No100

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